Let’s pin a tiger by it’s tail: ISU vs Princeton preview

The Iowa State Cyclones women’s basketball team face the Princeton Tigers in the First Four round of the NCAA tournament on Wednesday, March 19 at 6 pm Central. Since Big 12 fans may be less familiar with the Tigers, here are some notes:

• Neither team turns their opponents over much, and their offenses have similar turnover rates.
• Neither team will have a major size advantage. Iowa State and Princeton use a starting lineup of three guards and two posts, and both have comparable height.
• The teams have similar experience levels: both start four sophomores and one senior.
• If they go 7-8 players deep, Princeton will likely bring two forwards off the bench (a junior and a senior) and a freshman guard.
• Iowa State will definitely use junior Sydney Harris and sophomore Alisa Williams to give the starters a rest. Junior Lily Hansford could also provide some length and NCAA tournament experience.

In honor of the Ivy League opponent, let’s also look at what a few stats sites have to say about the matchup.
Massey Ratings:
#30 Iowa State
Offense: 13
Defense: 60
#52 Princeton
Offense: 87
Defense: 26
Projected result: Iowa State 72, Princeton 64

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Warren Nolan
NET:
#37 Iowa State
#47 Princeton
ELO:
#33 Iowa State
#54 Princeton

Bart Torvik:
#34 Iowa State
Adjusted offense (ADJOE): 14th
Adjusted defense (ADJDE): 61st
#45 Princeton
ADJOE: 44th
ADJDE: 68th

• Rebounding could be a key factor: Princeton is a good offensive rebounding team and Iowa State is a good defensive rebounding team. It’ll be strength on strength.
• In several stats (3P%, 2P%, 3P rate, ast rate), both teams are similar with Iowa State slightly better. This game may be, as Iowa State football coach Matt Campbell would say, won in the margins.
• Despite Princeton’s relatively good defense, they gave up 44 points to Harvard’s Harmoni Turner in their conference tournament loss. Iowa State has had success with strong individual performances in the NCAA tournament last year (Audi Crooks, Emily Ryan) and in the Big 12 tournament this year (Addy Brown, Crooks).

Bottom line: Poor execution and unforced errors can doom a good team against almost anyone. But teams Iowa State has struggled to beat had clear characteristics (lots of experience, speed you up or pressure the ball a lot) and those aren’t qualities of Princeton. The game sets up well for Iowa State to win, but they still have to do it. 

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