Middle Tennessee has covered the spread by an average of 30.5 points over their last three games. They are 4-point underdogs to UTSA.
The under has hit in three-straight games between Boise State and San Diego State. Boise ranks 118th in passing yards per game and just lost their quarterback to the transfer portal, while SDSU ranks 130th.
The over has hit in 4 of the last 5 games between Washington and UCLA. Both teams have combined to go 6-1-1 on the over this season with two of the top passing attacks in the nation.
Minnesota has beat Purdue 4 consecutive seasons as underdogs and comes into this game as a 12.5-point favorite. This game pits one of the nation’s top passing offenses in Purdue against one of the nation’s best passing defenses in Minnesota.
Since 2005, the under is 41-9-1 in games between service academy teams. The Navy and Air Force total is currently 37.5.
Michigan vs. Iowa features one of the best strength-on-strength matchups of the season. Michigan is #1 nationally in offensive points per play vs. FBS opponents, while Iowa is #1 nationally in defensive points per play. Iowa is 5-1 in their last 6 games against top-5 opponents in Kinnick and Ferentz has only lost by more than 8 points to a top-10 team in Kinnick just once since 2000. The Hawkeyes are 10.5-point underdogs at home.
Oklahoma has covered the spread in 6 of the last 7 matchups against TCU.
Georgia State is 0-3 against the spread as an underdog this season, while Army is 1-0 as a favorite. The Black Knights are 6.5-point favorites this weekend.
Kansas State is 8-2-1 against the spread against Texas Tech over the past 11 meetings.
Michigan State and Maryland have combined to go 6-2 on the under this season.
Oklahoma State is 6-1 as an away underdog since 2017, while Baylor is 10-10 as a home favorite in that same period. The Cowboys are 2-point underdogs in Waco.
Iowa State is 5-2 against the spread in the last 7 games against Kansas with an average margin of victory of 27.6 points. The Cyclones are favored by 3 in Lawrence. The Cyclones are also 16-6 against the spread after a loss since 2017, only 2nd in the nation to Alabama (4-0 ATS after a loss).
Virginia Tech and UNC features one of the starkest weakness vs. weakness and strength vs. strength units of the week. UNC’s high-powered offense (43.3 points per game) matches up against VT’s stout defense (21.0 points per game), while VT’s pedestrian offense (18.0 points per game) faces a weak UNC defense (44.7 points per game). This game has been decided by a touchdown or less in 3 of the last 4 games and this is likely to be a sloppy game with both teams ranking near the bottom of FBS in turnovers per game and penalties per game. I don’t have a trend, it’s just gross.
Despite Georgia Southern’s pass-heavy offensive gameplan, both Georgia Southern and Coastal Carolina rank in the top-20 rushing offenses nationally. Expect lots of running clock in this game, where the total has not gone over 58 points in the past 5 matchups. The current over/under is at 62.
North Texas and Florida Atlantic face off as two offenses averaging 6.0 yards per play with defenses that give up 6.0 yards per play. The over has hit in North Texas’ last 3 games.
South Alabama and Louisiana-Lafayette are two of the top turnover-forcing teams in the country (USA, 2.7; ULL, 3.3), but USA has an edge on 3rd down, where they’ve been efficient on offense this season (8th nationally), while Louisiana has struggled on 3rd down defensively (104th). South Alabama is 4-0 against the spread this season.
The under has hit in 5 of the last 6 games between California and Washington State.
UTEP has covered the spread in the last two matchups against Charlotte and comes into this game with one of the nation’s top pass defenses. Charlotte’s pass-heavy offense (10th nationally in pass play percentage) faces a UTEP defense that ranks #3 in completion percentage and #9 in passing yards per game.
LSU’s stout defensive front faces off against an Auburn offense that has struggled this season. LSU (3-1 ATS) ranks in the top-10 in rushing yards allowed per game and sack percentage, while Auburn has failed to cover the spread this season (0-4).
The underdog has covered the spread in the last 6 games between Cincinnati and Tulsa.
Virginia has covered the spread and won straight up in the last 6 games against Duke.
Indiana is 5.5-point underdogs at Nebraska this weekend. The Hoosiers average more passes per game than anyone in the nation (57 per game) while the Nebraska defense gives up 330 yards through the air per game (124th nationally). The Cornhuskers have failed to cover the spread in all four games this season.
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