Welcome to week 10, also known as the week I’m going to be forced to pick some PAC-12 games because they are the most interesting games of the week. The Good Teams Win; Great Teams cover family went 4-1 last week and are riding along at 56% for the season overall and I hope I can keep finding winners for us all. While I personally don’t mind betting UMass and UAB games (and do), my goal here is to try to pick winners of games people want to watch which is another reason I’m very happy to be at 56% with you all. One final housekeeping item; I plan to do this sort of thing for college basketball as well but since there are just so many games it isn’t feasible to write a column every day so I’m still looking at the best way to tackle that. It’s very likely something I’ll continue to do once a week and just try to be better at sending out my picks daily via twitter. Now onto the fun!
Florida +6.5 vs Georgia: The world’s largest outdoor cocktail party in Jacksonville and the premier matchup of the week. Florida gets all their defensive lineman back and has a very good defense overall. Since their opener against Miami the Gators are +6 in the turnover department and the offense is putting up 33 points per game. Florida also has a big edge at head coach. Everyone has talked about Georgia all year as a national title contender while Dan Mullen may just have the Gators convinced they can be the team to come out of the SEC. I like the Gators to keep this one close and have a shot to win late in this game.
Indiana -10.5 vs Northwestern: Indiana is looking at a potential 8 win season. They have a fairly high powered offense even putting up 31 at Michigan State. Northwestern just can’t score. They have 15 points or less in five games this season and 10 or less in four of those games. In a game where they will likely have to score to have a shot to keep it close they will be dependent on quarterback play that completes less than 50% of their passes. Even if the Wildcat d holds Indiana 7 points below their season average that won’t be enough to cover.
Mississippi State -7.5 at Arkansas: This is a real opportunity to buy low on Mississippi State. The Bulldogs have lost four in a row and five of their last six. However, three of those losses were to Texas A&M, Auburn, and LSU. Arkansas is awful against the run and Mississippi State should come in determined to exert their will, control some clock, and go into their bye week on a high note.
TCU +2.5 at Oklahoma State: Two team off of solid wins last week trying to climb the big 12 ranks. Oklahoma State does not do well in conference as favorites under Mike Gundy. They come off of big wins with losses, even at home. Meanwhile Gary Patterson has a quarterback who is gaining confidence and one of the best defenses in the conference again. Going with the team who I feel continuing to get better as the year progresses in this one.
FAU +1.5 at Western Kentucky: I have to get at least one Lane Kiffin bet a year in and this is a prime spot. WKU has been venerable in games against good offenses and Kiffin has a phenomenal offensive mind. The Owls will put up plenty of points here and WKU won’t be able to keep up this week.
Good luck to everyone this week with all your plays!
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