July 15, 2024

Gookin’s Gambling Trends Week Six

Nebraska and Rutgers have played 4 times as Big Ten opponents. The road team has covered the spread in all 4 games. Nebraska is a 3-point favorite in Piscataway. 

Nevada has outscored Colorado State 101-20 over the past two seasons and has covered the spread in the last 4 meetings. They are 3.5-point favorites against Colorado State. 

Texas is favored against Oklahoma for the first time since 2009. The Longhorns are 4-1 against the spread this season, while Oklahoma is just 2-3, losing their last two games as favorites. 

Eastern Michigan has covered the spread as underdogs in each of the last 4 seasons against Western Michigan. 

The under has hit in 5-straight games between Florida and Missouri. 

TCU and Kansas are two of the hottest teams in college football, both undefeated against the spread this season with high-powered offenses. Both teams have rushing advantages on offense with mobile quarterbacks, so expect plenty of running clock. If you’re looking for an edge, TCU QB Max Duggan ranks #1 nationally in passer rating against a Kansas pass efficiency defense ranked #82. 

Michigan is one of the best first half offenses in the nation, averaging 13.0 points per first quarter (4th nationally) and 26.6 points per first half (3rd nationally). Indiana is giving up 7.8 points per first quarter (97th nationally) and 21.5 points per first half (114th nationally). 

Louisville and Virginia have gone under the total points in each of the last 6 seasons. 

USF has covered the spread against Cincinnati in each of the last 7 seasons. 

Liberty has been 23.5, 35.0, and 35.5-point favorites in each of the last three seasons against UMass and has covered the spread in each game. UMass is one of the worst offenses in college football, averaging just 8.3 points per game against FBS opponents, last in FBS. 

The under is 7-1-1 between Northwestern and Wisconsin in the past 9 matchups. 

Kent State and Miami (OH) hit the under in 7-straight seasons before blowing over the point total last season. However, both offenses have struggled and the under has hit in 7 of the 10 games the teams have played this season. 

In 8 of the last 9 games between Georgia and Auburn, Georgia has covered the spread and the under has hit. 

Oklahoma State has been one of the most efficient first half teams in the country, holding a +18.7 first half margin against FBS opponents. The first half line is -5.5 against Texas Tech. 

Pitt is 13-2 against the spread in the last 15 games against Virginia Tech. Expect this game to start slow, as both teams try to establish the run early to wear down defenses later in the game. 

Duke has covered the spread in 7 of the last 8 games against Georgia Tech. 
Arizona State had a 13-game ATS streak snapped against Washington last season as the Huskies covered the 6-point spread in a 5-point loss. Washington looks to make it two in a row with a favorable matchup against a Sun Devils team that struggles to defend the pass and has lost 3 of their last 4 games by 17 or more points. 

Mississippi has made quick work of opponents this season, jumping out to halftime leads of 17, 31, 21, 18, and most recently a 7-point lead against #7 Kentucky. Vanderbilt currently ranks 112th in first half points allowed. Ole Miss is currently -10 first half. 

App State and Texas State have gone under in each of their last 5 matchups. 

Wyoming and New Mexico have gone under in each of their last 5 matchups. 

Kentucky has covered the spread in 8 of the last 9 matchups against South Carolina. 

Iowa has covered the spread in each of the last 4 games in Champaign. This game features two teams that are embracing old school Big Ten football with elite defenses, pedestrian run-first offenses, and a battle for field position on special teams. Iowa holds edges in turnover margin (#12 nationally) and penalty yardage per game (#19) over Illinois (#29 and #116, respectively). 

Iowa State vs Kansas State features a strength-on-strength matchup, with K-State’s top-5 rushing offense facing off against Iowa State’s top-5 rushing defense. The key stat in this game is turnovers — Kansas State is forcing 2.5 per game (#7 nationally) while Iowa State is giving up 2.0 turnovers per game (#98). The Cyclones are 7-14 (33%) under Campbell when giving up at least 2 turnovers. 

NC State is 14-3 against the spread vs. Florida State since 2005. 

Alabama and Texas A&M have gone over the point total in their last 4 games. 

Oregon and Arizona broke a 7-year under streak last season with the lowest total in more than a decade (59.0 O/U). This year’s O/U is back up to 70.0, a number the teams have only hit once in the past 8 meetings. 

Fresno and Boise have gone under the point total in 6-straight matchups. 

San Diego State is one of the worst passing offenses in the country, ranking last in completion percentage, yards per pass, and passing yards per game. However, Hawaii is one of the worst defensive teams in the country, giving up 7.9 yards per rush and 294.5 yards per game on the ground. Expect lots of running clock and stalled out drives in a matchup that has gone under the point total in 7 of the last 9 games. 

Oregon State showed some promise early in the season before struggling against two of the Pac-12’s top teams. They face a Stanford team that has struggled in the trenches this season, struggling to protect their quarterback or stop ball carriers at the line of scrimmage. The Cardinal are 0-4 against the spread this season. 

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Alex Gookin
Alex Gookin 65 Articles
Staff Writer

Gookin is an Iowa State graduate with a degree in journalism, but decided writing professionally wasn't all it was cracked up to be. Instead, he took an unpaid position to write content for this blog, which seems counter-intuitive, but he enjoys it, nonetheless. Gookin was voted male with the “Most School Spirit,” and 2nd most flirtatious in his senior class. He enjoys statistics no one else has the patience to look up and enjoys Iowa State athletics more than he’s willing to admit. A closet Hawkeye fan (false), you can find Alex being harassed by at least one bad Twitter troll and winning nearly all of his online fights (less false, but false).

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