Championship week is here bringing all its excitement with it. It also means the end is near and bowl season is almost upon us. Finally, it means there is a short board this week so value is a bit more difficult to find with the limited selection. Luckily I’ve found a few we should be able to capitalize on.
Oklahoma -9 vs Baylor-I see this as a continuation of the second half from the last time these two met. Oklahoma is a far better team all around and will have CeeDee Lamb in the lineup this time around. Hurts will be more careful with the ball and Riley will be looking to run up the score in case that the final playoff spot comes down to who the committee feels had a more impressive conference title game showing. Baylor is getting some play here and the line is still single digits because of their blowout win last week against Kansas. I’m not giving them credit for blowing out a bad team, that is simply doing what you are supposed to against terrible competition. Oklahoma will put up a big number here and Baylor will not keep up.
Clemson -28.5 vs Virginia-This is a huge number for a title game and it’s deserved. How is Virginia going to get more than 10 points in this game? I don’t see it happening and I do happen to think Clemson can manage 40 in any game they want to so checking my math that is a cover. Dabo may be annoying you in the press but he is keeping his team hungry and making sure they feel like they should show off every week because they are so disrespected.
Wisconsin +16 vs Ohio State-This is tough because I have had a lot of success riding with the Buckeyes this season and I do think they are one of the best three teams in the country right now but this is a big number playing a team like Wisconsin for the second time around. Wisconsin has a good secondary and solid linebackers that won’t by any means stop but can potentially slow down the prolific Ohio State offense. The Badgers also do a fantastic job of running clock when they have the ball and shortening the game. Fields is still a little slow for Ohio State and didn’t run the ball a lot last week so that makes the linebackers job a little easier as well. I’m hoping we cap the night off with a game that doesn’t ever get much over double digits so we are entertained and get a nice cover here.
Here are a few other quick notes on games I like but haven’t played yet for those that like to go full degenerate with me and bet most of the board.
Georgia +7 vs LSU and under 55-Georgia has the best defense in the SEC and the country. They are going to be short handed offensively so much like Wisconsin they’ll have to shorten the game to keep in it but that is a Kirby Smart special. LSU hasn’t played a defense like this and their secondary has had it’s share of issues, maybe this is the week Fromm gets to show off why he’s a top draft prospect.
Memphis -9.5 vs Cincinnati-Memphis can score way way more than Cinci. Way more. Mike Norvell is probably leaving town after this one and I’d expect him to want to go out on a high note for himself, the team, and the fans.
FAU -8 vs UAB-UAB has eight wins against awful teams. Their schedule has been putrid. Famed writer Tom Fornelli has seven of the eight teams UAB has beaten in his bottom 25. I’ll likely be on the Lane Train here thinking they win by at least two touchdowns.
Thank you all again for reading and for sharing the column and spreading the word about The Tailgate Society. I can’t say enough good things about the entire crew here. Thank you to our amazing sponsor Deadeye BBQ Sauce (available in Fareway, Hy-Vee, and Amazon). I hope they have found a permanent spot in your pantry and fridge as they have in mine. Finally, I’m still working out how to best share my basketball picks. Likely it will be mostly on Twitter @tgslevi but I’m considering doing some sort of podcast or maybe even a five minute quick video each day with a couple things I like. If you’ve got ideas there or something you’d like to see feel free to let me know. Best of luck to you all; tell a friend that good teams win, great teams cover.
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