52.38%. A number that is likely very familiar with most of the people reading this but if not 52.38% is how often you need to be correct to break even betting sports. Assuming you are always laying the standard $11 to win $10 proposition. Knowing you ONLY have to win barely over half of your wagers almost makes things feel easy but as most of us have learned that isn’t always so. That fact is what makes your bankroll management so critical. You likely see a lot of game of the week, year, and century advertised every week. Someone may be telling you to risk 12 plus units on a single game. My advice; ignore the unit players and mortal lock guys for the most part. If you are tailing someone try to find someone who wins 53 plus percent. While it isn’t exciting sometimes or great for marketing those are most likely the people being honest with you. It also isn’t a bad idea to keep track of the people you see losing 60% of their bets. You don’t have to say a word to them but you can smile and fade everything they take. This may be a good point to mention I’m 10-7-1 here for 59% plus the Tennessee +230 suggestion last week if you are scoring at home. And away we go!
Iowa -17.5 vs Purdue-Purdue will be without their starting quarterback. likely without Rondale Moore, and have an injury list overall that is longer than I’m willing to type out. Purdue has no running game against bad teams, Iowa may not let them past midfield. Iowa looked awful offensively last week playing Penn State but Purdon’t is not Penn State. The Hawks should bounce back here, build Stanley’s confidence back up for the stretch run, and roll Purdue.
Ohio -7.5 vs Kent State-Kent State has an awful defense, especially against the run and has averaged 15 points per game if you take out the game against a terrible Bowling Green team. Ohio will run the ball easily and consistently here and I like the Bobcats to be more focused with a senior quarterback off of a bad loss.
Washington State -13 vs Colorado-Two teams that have lost 3 of their last 4 here. I’m not a huge fan of laying this many points as a general rule but I am going to make an exception. Washington State’s last two losses were against the best defense (Utah) and one of the best coached (Arizona State) teams in the Pac-12. Colorado has a defense that is flat out embarrassing. They allow over 300 yards per game passing, almost 500 a game, and have only 4 sacks on the season outside the Nebraska game. Washington State was on the road for the last couple weeks and will come home and blow out an inferior opponent to get Leach back in the headlines.
Rutgers +28.5 vs Minnesota-I picked against Minnesota last week and I am sorry. I said some things about them that were completely right and Nebraska tried to make them look correct. I am standing by my convictions and do not believe they are a good team despite their record. Moreover, they have played bad teams close. That’s really all this pick is. A bad team at home trying hard for an intern coach against a team that knows it will win, had a long flight, and doesn’t care if they win by 4 or 40. Since the Minnesota margin of victory was 5 points until they played the heartless, gutless, uncaring teams of Illinois and Nebraska I’ll say 4 touchdowns is too much.
Penn State -8.5 vs Michigan-Time to access that deep thinking part of my brain that knows Michigan is what Michigan is. Take out the name. The concern here is that Penn State allows Michigan to turn this game into a rock fight like the Nittany Lions allowed Pitt and Iowa to do to them but I think James Franklin turns Clifford loose here and lets him take some shots against the Michigan defense. A big win here may be important if Penn State is trying to prove they belong in the playoffs later this year and 100,000 plus people are going to have something to say about it.
And finally a just for fun moneyline pick of the week. Temple +250 at SMU. Temple is a very solid football team all around. They are fairly balanced, have stepped out of conference and beat power 5 teams, and do a good job against the run which is SMU’s strength. The Mustangs have had a couple close calls on their way to the 6-0 record and this might just be the spot they go down.
Good luck to you all, thank you again for reading and supporting The Tailgate Society, and most importantly thank you to Deadeye BBQ for their support. When the person on the barstool next to you this weekend tells you your team is no good remember; good teams win, great teams cover.
Leave a Reply