November 25, 2017

Friday Degenerate Board – 2/3/17

I can’t hide anymore. After the last week of gambling, where we took a sizeable hit, I fled the country. I contemplated the meaning of life, the disappointment I put my fellow degenerates through, and if this column should even continue.

Who am I kidding?

I didn’t give a shit because like I always say, don’t play these bets. If you do, play them all. If you had, you’d still be up over $1,900 on the year. DON’T LOSE THE FAITH!

To the recap!

The Recap & Running Damage Total

  • College Football Picks (0-1-0) 57.1% [+$1,185]
  • College Basketball Picks (3-5-0) 50.0% [-$10]
    • 11-9 including parlayed/teased bets 55.0%
  • NBA Picks (2-1) 57.9% [+$310]
  • NHL Picks (0-0) 100.0% [+$100]
  • NFL Picks (1-7) 39.0% [+$831.19]
    • 2-15 including parlayed/teased bets 60.7%
    • 1-2 on completed Futures
  • Against the Spread (5-5-0) 55.0% [+$560]
  • Straight Up (0-5) 42.5% [+$720]
  • On the Tease (0-1) 37.5% [-$5]
  • On Parlays(0-2) 25.0% [+$1,141.19]
  • On Futures (1-2) 20.0% [$0.00]
    • $700 in undecided Futures

So we lost the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game (thanks Steelers), Steelers in the Super Bowl (thanks Steelers), and hit on Falcons in the Super Bowl as far as futures bets went during the layoff. So seriously, fuck off Steelers. If you were going to beat the Chiefs, just beat the Patriots too – instead you lost us both bets.

Outside of that, Wild Card Weekend was inexplicably awful for us as all the favorites won bigly, college basketball (my specialty) was a little rough, but looking at the overall bankroll numbers, we’re doing pretty well, no?

The Best Win

There weren’t very many, so I’ll say the Falcons getting to the Super Bowl at 4 to 1. About week 13 of the NFL season, it was apparent who the best team in the NFC was, and 4 to 1 felt like a steal. Glad to see us get that one.

The Worst Beat

Take your pick really. I have to go with our wildcard tease though. With the spreads the way they were, all the Raiders, Lions and Giants had to do was lose by single digits. That’s it. Instead, all of them lost in blowouts. Seriously, not even one lost by single digits. Atrocious.

Honorable mention goes to Oklahoma losing by 11 at Kansas State. If you remember all the way back, we had Maryland +7 at Michigan (they won outright), Texas Tech at Kansas (-10) (they won by 17), and the Sooners (+10) at Kansas State – and they lost by 11. We lost a 3-team $600 payout parlay by one fucking point. Whatever.

On to the next.

This Week’s Board

Original Bankroll: $5,000.00
Current Bankroll: $6916.19 ($500 outstanding on futures bets)

The Arbitrary Rules: 10 picks ATS or O/U (Against the Spread or Over/Under), 5 picks SU (straight up), 1 teaser, 1 3-way parlay, 1 5-way parlay, 1 random ass futures bet

The Source: Vegas Insiders (games 2/3/17 to 2/5/17)

We’re going to do something a little different this week. As it’s Super Bowl week, all of my SU bets will be prop bets for the big game. Possibly my favorite gambling activity.

The Picks:

  • Against the Spread
    1. NFL: Falcons vs. Patriots (-3) ($110 to win $100)
      • I have conflicting interest in this. I really want the Falcons to win. The only way I REALLY lose here is if the Pats win by one or two.
    2. CBB: Virginia at Syracuse (+6) ($110 to win $100)
      • Syracuse has been better of late and Virginia has been vulnerable on the road at times.
    3. CBB: Purdue at Maryland (+1.5) ($110 to win $100)
      • Those who know me, know I hate the Terps this year, but I couldn’t believe they’re getting points at home. Purdue lost at Nebraska and Iowa, why can’t they lose at Maryland?
    4. CBB: Kentucky (+2.5) at Florida ($110 to win $100)
      • I’m aware Florida has been on a crazy roll lately. I’m aware Fox may not play for Kentucky. This is a total gut pick.
    5. CBB: Arizona (+3.5) at Oregon ($110 to win $100)
      • Arizona won at UCLA and Oregon almost lost at home to Arizona State. Give me the Wildcats straight up.
    6. CBB: UCLA (-11) at Washington ($110 to win $100)
      • If you’ve seen Washington play defense and UCLA play offense, you should be in favor of this bet.
    7. CBB: Ohio State at Michigan (-7) ($110 to win $100)
      • I have viewership bias here. I’ve seen Ohio State play and fail to score way too often.
    8. CBB: Minnesota (+1.5) at Illinois ($110 to win $100)
      • If Minnesota has any hope of the NCAA’s, they have to have this.
    9. CBB: Oklahoma at Texas Tech (-7) ($110 to win $100)
      • Texas Tech took a rough loss at Texas this week. I think they get back on track at home in a big way.
    10. CBB: Notre Dame (+10.5) at North Carolina ($110 to win $100)
      • The ACC is a crap shoot at the moment, but Pitt almost won at UNC. Notre Dame is reeling and desperate for another big win.
  • Straight Up (Super Bowl Props)
    1. NFL: Length of National Anthem Under 2:15 ($110 to win $100)
      • Don’t let me down Luke Bryan. Nobody wants to see this shit drag on.
    2. NFL: Player to score first touchdown – LeGarrette Blount (+800) ($100 to win $800)
      • There are other, more likely options, but at 8 to 1, how can you not take a flier on a goal line bruiser?
    3. NFL: Anyone to win MVP NOT NAMED Tom Brady, Matt Ryan or Julio Jones (+1000) ($100 to win $1000)
      • The odds on a non-QB MVP are just really stupid, but you get literally any other player (except Julio) at 10 to 1? I’ll take a chance.
    4. NFL: Most receiving yards – Chris Hogan (+600) ($100 to win $600)
      • Can he repeat his Steelers performance?
    5. NFL: Most rushing yards – Dion Lewis (+600) ($100 to win $600)
      • Again, this is a value bet. It will likely be a Falcon, but 6 to 1 on Dion Lewis is too good to pass up. Maybe just break a couple 90-yard touchdowns and win MVP too?
  • 6-point; 3-Team Teaser ($100 to win $170)
    1. CBB: Iowa State at Kansas (-8), Oklahoma at Texas Tech (-2)Kentucky (+7.5) at Florida
      • Teaser rules: All 3 teams must cover spreads 6 points in their favor. For example the Red Raiders were originally 7-point favorites and we’ve teased the line down to 2-point favorites.
  • 3-Way Parlay ($100 to win $600)
    1. CBB: IPFW at Denver (-1)Texas A&M (-5.5) at LSU, Ohio State at Michigan (-7)
      • Denver has one of the best home court advantages, LSU and Ohio State are just bad.
  • 5-Way Parlay ($100 to win $?)
    1. CBB: Arkansas (-260) at Missouri, Texas A&M (-215) at LSU, Ohio State at Michigan (-460), Mississippi at Vanderbilt (-280)Arizona State (-200) at Oregon State
      • Check back tomorrow once money lines come out on these games.
  • Random Futures
    1. CFB: Florida State to win the College Football Playoff next season ($100 to win $800)
      • Whenever you bet “not Alabama” you always look for the best value with an actual chance. Since I’ll never bet Alabama, this is where we are.

The Damage: 19 bets, $2,010 on the table, $6,087.75 in potential winnings.

The Disclaimer: Don’t actually play these bets. I’m a degenerate and I’m sure this column will be bankrupt in a few short weeks. Do not construe any of this as actual gambling advice. Your bets and your results are your responsibility, and neither I, nor TGS, bear any responsibility for your personal actions.

Tom Danielson 67 Articles

Managing Editor

Every family needs an adult figure. That’s Tom’s job on this ship. After graduating from Iowa State University, Tom headed down the ‘failed professional golfer’ career path before heading back to his calling as an engineer in the great white north (Minnesota). He got his start in blogging, and continues to contribute at the critically acclaimed site, Wide Right & Natty Lite.  A student of the ‘you can’t fail if you don’t try’ philosophy, there’s no better way to describe Tom than a ‘Jack of all trades, master of none’.

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