July 20, 2017

Friday Degenerate Board – 2/10/17

The Super Bowl is the worst. We went 6-3 in college basketball picks ATS and managed to lose $330 because of Super Bowl prop betting. That’s including a win on the under 2:15 National Anthem length.

So we’re going all college basketball this week. Prepare to lose your mortgage payment at the hands of the performance of 18-22 year olds!

To the recap!

The Recap & Running Damage Total

  • College Football Picks (0-0) 57.1% [+$1,185]
  • College Basketball Picks (6-6-0) 50.0% [-$40]
    • 11-9 including parlayed/teased bets 55.0%
  • NBA Picks (0-0) 57.9% [+$310]
  • NHL Picks (0-0) 100.0% [+$100]
  • NFL Picks (2-4) 39.0% [+$631.19]
    • 2-4 including parlayed/teased bets 60.7%
    • 1-2 on completed Futures
  • Against the Spread (5-5-0) 55.0% [+$930]
  • Straight Up (0-5) 42.5% [+$420]
  • On the Tease (0-1) 37.5% [-$105]
  • On Parlays(0-2) 25.0% [+$941.19]
  • On Futures (1-2) 20.0% [$0.00]
    • $600 in undecided Futures

The Best Win

I always love winning by half a point. There’s seriously no greater feeling than being on the right side of a hook. Conversely, there’s nothing worse than being on the wrong side of the gambler’s bane.

In this case, we had Maryland as a 1.5-point home dog to Purdue. When I first looked at the score, I said to myself, “Shit, Maryland lost. There’s no way they covered.” Oh, but they did. The extremely overrated Terrapins lost 73-72. How sweet it is.

The Worst Beat

I knew that betting on a bunch of underdog Super Bowl props was a risky proposition, but I figured if I hit on one of four, I’d be up a boatload. We had 10:1 odds that anyone other than Brady, Ryan and Julio Jones were selected as MVP.

Don’t get it twisted, I’m not saying Brady shouldn’t have been given the MVP, he was out of this world in the second half. I’m just saying some consideration needed to be given to James White who ran 14 times for 110 yards and a touchdown, and had 6 catches for 29 yards and two scores. That’s the difference between a down week and a huge week.

Also, we grabbed 6 points with road underdogs Arizona and Kentucky. They lost by a combined 49 points. Whatever.

This Week’s Board

Original Bankroll: $5,000.00
Current Bankroll: $6,586.19 ($600 outstanding on futures bets)

The Arbitrary Rules: 10 picks ATS or O/U (Against the Spread or Over/Under), 5 picks SU (straight up), 1 teaser, 1 3-way parlay, 1 5-way parlay, 1 random ass futures bet

The Source: Vegas Insiders (games 2/10/17 to 2/12/17)

The Picks:

  • Against the Spread
    1. CBB: Boston College (+8) at Georgia Tech ($110 to win $100)
      • This is a dangerous bet seeing how good Georgia Tech has been at home. I just see a minor let down and a marginal win. Give me the points.
    2. CBB: Oregon (-4.5) at USC ($110 to win $100)
      • Oregon was good for most of the way at UCLA earlier this week. Good enough to cover this one.
    3. CBB: Kansas (-4.5) at Texas Tech ($110 to win $100)
      • This feels like the time in the season Kansas puts their choke hold on the Big 12.
    4. CBB: TCU (+9.5) at Baylor ($110 to win $100)
      • Baylor just doesn’t win many games by double digits and lost at home last week to Kansas State.
    5. CBB: Butler (-4) at Providence ($110 to win $100)
      • Providence lost at home to Boston College, so…
    6. CBB: Syracuse (-1.5) at Pittsburgh ($110 to win $100)
      • Syracuse is surging and Louisville won by more than 50 there.
    7. CBB: North Carolina State (+9) at Wake Forest ($110 to win $100)
      • I just realized how many road teams in a row I’ve picked. Woof.
    8. CBB: Ohio State at Maryland (-7) ($110 to win $100)
      • Lyle is out for tOSU and I just like Maryland in this spot after back to back losses.
    9. CBB: Florida State (+2) at Notre Dame ($110 to win $100)
      • Notre Dame has lost four of five and it’s time for Florida State to take their ranked wins show on the road.
    10. CBB: Georgia at Tennessee (-5) ($110 to win $100)
      • I’m hoping the Tennessee that beat Kentucky and Kansas State shows up in this one.
  • Straight Up (Money lines won’t be out until Saturday, but here are some underdogs I think can win)
    1. CBB: Gonzaga at St. Mary’s (+175) ($100 to win $175)
      • I just want to have some money on a potential undefeated season ruining win.
    2. CBB: Villanova at Xavier (+160) ($100 to win $160)
      • With the injuries, this would be a huge win for Xavier, but it’s possible if they play like they did at Creighton.
    3. CBB: Iowa (+220) at Michigan State ($100 to win $220)
      • Iowa won their last year. Both teams are much worse than that, but this isn’t inconceivable.
    4. CBB: Minnesota at Rutgers (+200) ($100 to win $200)
      • Minnesota was unimpressive against Iowa on Wednesday, and Rutgers has improved as the season has progressed.
    5. CBB: Vanderbilt at Missouri (+250) ($100 to win $250)
      • Mizzou ruined a parlay last week. Can they give us another home win to make up for it?
  • 6-point; 3-Team Teaser ($100 to win $170)
    1. CBB: Clemson at Duke (-4.5), Ohio State at Maryland (-1)Kansas (+1.5) at Texas Tech
      • Teaser rules: All 3 teams must cover spreads 6 points in their favor. For example the Jayhawks were originally 4.5-point favorites and we’ve teased the line down to 1.5-point underdogs.
  • 3-Way Parlay ($100 to win $600)
    1. CBB: Gonzaga (-4) at St. Mary’s, Kansas (-4.5) at Texas Tech, Syracuse (-1.5) at Pittsburgh
      • I have to hedge with the Gonzaga pick because I still think they pull this off.
  • 5-Way Parlay ($100 to win $287.56)
    1. CBB: Villanova (-180) at Xavier, Kansas State at West Virginia (-600)Creighton (-650) at DePaul, Oregon (-155) at USC, Texas at Oklahoma State (-800)
      • Check back tomorrow once money lines come out on these games.
  • Random Futures
    1. CBB: Kansas to win NCAA Championship (+800)
      • I’m taking Kansas at 8:1 here and I also have Duke at (+350). Now wouldn’t be a bad time to buy into Duke if you haven’t already at 9:1. I almost bought more stock.

The Damage: 19 bets, $2,000 on the table, $3,857.56 in potential winnings.

The Disclaimer: Don’t actually play these bets. I’m a degenerate and I’m sure this column will be bankrupt in a few short weeks. Do not construe any of this as actual gambling advice. Your bets and your results are your responsibility, and neither I, nor TGS, bear any responsibility for your personal actions.

Tom Danielson 65 Articles
Managing Editor

Every family needs an adult figure. That's Tom's job on this ship. After graduating from Iowa State University, Tom headed down the ‘failed professional golfer' career path before heading back to his calling as an engineer in the great white north (Minnesota). He got his start in blogging, and continues to contribute at the critically acclaimed site, Wide Right & Natty Lite.  A student of the ‘you can't fail if you don't try' philosophy, there's no better way to describe Tom than a 'Jack of all trades, master of none'.

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