September 25, 2017

Friday Degenerate Board – 1/6/17

I never tire of winning a couple hundred dollars a week. Plus I’m leaving for my honeymoon next week, and I could use the extra cash. Hopefully, we can continue this trend into the new year because 2017 is already awesome. It’s time to really start switching to basketball and say goodbye to football which has been so good to us. This also means that the column will be later than it has been because basketball lines for the weekend typically don’t come out until late Friday. So I’m posting this now so you can get Friday picks in, and I’ll update it throughout the weekend as the college basketball lines come out.

To the recap!

The Recap & Running Damage Total

  • College Football Picks (3-5-1) 57.1% [+$1,295]
    • 0-1 on completed Futures
  • College Basketball Picks (0-0) 75.0% [+$190]
  • NBA Picks (0-0) 56.3% [+$220]
  • NHL Picks (0-0) 100.0% [+$100]
  • NFL Picks (5-5) 41.7% [+$1,261.19]
    • 12-6 including parlayed/teased bets 63.8%
    • 0-1 on completed Futures
  • Against the Spread (5-4-1) 55.7% [+$610]
  • Straight Up (1-4) 48.6% [+$1,220]
  • On the Tease (1-0) 42.9% [+$95]
  • On Parlays(1-1) 28.6% [+$1,341.19]
  • On Futures (0-1) 0.0% [-$200]
    • $700 in undecided Futures

Well, Ohio State didn’t win the National Championship score a point, so we lost that future, but remember futures bets are a lot like teases and parlays. The odds are often enough if your favor that if you hit 25-33%ish you can still make money. So let’s not get too down on ourselves.

We’ve been struggling a bit as of late with our straight up picks, but I have a pretty good feeling about those in relation to college basketball season. It’s time to turn this ship around and really maximize our profit.

The Best Win

I’ll be perfectly honest, I didn’t watch a second of the Florida State Michigan game. We bet the ‘Noles straight up and ATS, and when I saw a report that Jabrill Peppers wasn’t going to play, I wanted to just avoid the TV so I didn’t jinx it. Avoiding the TV obviously doesn’t mean avoiding Twitter, and while FSU lead the majority of the first half, I kind of stepped away from it all. Once I saw the final score (33-32 FSU) I had to go back and figure out wtf just happened.

Basically Michigan took their first lead of the game (30-27) with less than two minutes left. FSU then scored somehow again, but had the extra point blocked and returned for two points for Michigan. Regardless of how it happened, we walked out with more than $300 profit – thanks FSU.

The Worst Beat

Two teams I should really avoid betting. The Colts and the Lions. We had the Colts -4.5 against the Jags, and wouldn’t you know it, they got down 17-0 to start the game. Wouldn’t you believe it, those damn Colts came crawling back to win, 24-20, but as you can tell, that’s not 4.5 points, only 4. What are you doing Colts? Just playing with your food long enough to screw bettors?

Honorable mention goes to the WMU Broncos +8 against Wisconsin. The Broncos pulled within eight with about four minutes left and promptly missed the extra point. Nothing like a push to really help you ring in the new year.

This Week’s Board

Original Bankroll: $5,000.00
Current Bankroll: $7,366.19 ($700 outstanding on futures bets)

The Arbitrary Rules: 10 picks ATS or O/U (Against the Spread or Over/Under), 5 picks SU (straight up), 1 teaser, 1 3-way parlay, 1 5-way parlay, 1 random ass futures bet

The Source: Vegas Insiders (games 1/6/17 to 1/8/17)

The Picks:

  • Against the Spread
    1. CFB: Clemson vs. Alabama (-6.5) ($110 to win $100)
      • I actually have no confidence in this pick, but what could would watching a National Championship game be if you don’t have money on it?
    2. CBB:Creighton (-3.5) at Providence ($110 to win $100)
      • Providence lost to Boston College. Creighton should be more than fine here. Don’t think PC can score enough to keep up.
    3. CBB:Clemson at Notre Dame (-3.5) ($110 to win $100)
      • I know Clemson is much improved, I just have a feeling they’re due for a bad road spot. Enter, the Irish.
    4. CBB: Texas Tech at Kansas (-10) ($110 to win $100)
      • I think the Jayhawks are out to prove a point and make a statement to the rest of the Big 12.
    5. NBA: Jazz at Timberwolves (+1.5) ($110 to win $100)
      • The Timberwolves are an exciting team and also extremely unpredictable, I just think they match up well against the better Jazz.
    6. NBA: Heat at Lakers (-2.5) ($110 to win $100)
      • I know you’re not supposed to bet on a bad home favorite, but I just think the Heat will tank. No Bosh, no Whiteside, and they’re on their west coast road trip. Randle should feast.
    7. NBA: Clippers (-1) at Kings ($110 to win $100)
      • Both Blake Griffin and Chris Paul are out, but they’ve handled their business without those two and the Kings are bad.
    8. NFL: Lions (+8) at Seahawks ($110 to win $100)
      • I don’t have any confidence the Lions could actually WIN this game, but I’ve seen enough of the Seahawks this season to think that the game will be within a touchdown.
    9. NFL: Raiders (+3.5) at Texans ($110 to win $100)
      • I really like the hook here. I just don’t see Brock Osweiler beating anybody by more than a field goal, especially after what happened to Houston in the playoffs last year.
    10. NFL: Giants (-4.5) at Packers ($110 to win $100)
      • I believe Eli has won his last two trips to Lambeau in the playoffs and his last seven as an underdog in the playoffs. We all know Playoff Eli is ELI-te.
  • Straight Up
    1. CBB: Pittsburgh (+150) at Syracuse ($100 to win $150)
      • Well Syracuse lost at home to Boston College…
    2. CBB: Butler at Georgetown (+140) ($100 to win $140)
      • Georgetown has no problem showing up for these games, and has already beaten some good teams this year. It’s the bad teams they have to watch out for.
    3. CBB: Oklahoma (+500) at Kansas State ($100 to win $500)
      • Can Lon Kruger walk into Bramlage with his 6-7 Sooners and beat his alma mater? It’s worth a shot at 5:1 odds.
    4. NFL: Raiders (+170) at Texans ($100 to win $170)
      • Can the Texans score 20? I doubt it. Can the Raiders? Maybe. Real strong bet here.
    5. NFL: Giants (+180) at Packers ($100 to win $180)
      • See my ATS description.
  • 6-point; 3-Team Teaser ($100 to win $170)
    1. NFL: Raiders (+9.5) at Texans, Lions (+14) at Seattle, Giants (+10.5) at Packers
      • Teaser rules: All 3 teams must cover spreads 6 points in their favor. For example the Raiders were originally 3.5-point underdogs and we’ve teased the line down to 9.5-point underdogs.
  • 3-Way Parlay ($100 to win $600)
    1. CBB:Oklahoma (+10) at Kansas State, Maryland (+7) at Michigan, Texas Tech at Kansas (-10)
      • What’s the old saying? You’re never as good or bad as your last performance? Let’s hope these three aren’t as bad. I think the lines are skewed based on recent underwhelming performances.
  • 5-Way Parlay ($100 to win $643.26)
    1. CBB: Clemson at Notre Dame (-200), UAB at Rice (-260), Ole Miss at Auburn (-150)Creighton (-220) at Providence, Michigan State (-210) at Penn State.
      • Praying for all the right upsets today, just none of these five. Basketball is harder because the moneylines are so exaggerated. Gotta pick small enough favorites that you’re not at like -1400, but you obviously still have to find five winners.
  • Random Futures
    1. NHL: Minnesota Wild (+375) to win Western Conference ($100 to win $375)
      • The ONLY reason I’m not betting the Blackhawks is simply because of value. Do I really think the Wild will win? Maybe. But the Blackhawks have eliminated them the last three times they’ve gone head to head in the playoffs. 11:4 Blackhawks and 15:4 for the Wild were enough to convince me to ride the underdog. Plus if my team heads to the Stanley Cup Finals, I want a piece of that action.

The Damage: 19 bets, $2,000 on the table, $3,768.26 in potential winnings.

The Disclaimer: Don’t actually play these bets. I’m a degenerate and I’m sure this column will be bankrupt in a few short weeks. Do not construe any of this as actual gambling advice. Your bets and your results are your responsibility, and neither I, nor TGS, bear any responsibility for your personal actions.

Tom Danielson 65 Articles
Managing Editor

Every family needs an adult figure. That's Tom's job on this ship. After graduating from Iowa State University, Tom headed down the ‘failed professional golfer' career path before heading back to his calling as an engineer in the great white north (Minnesota). He got his start in blogging, and continues to contribute at the critically acclaimed site, Wide Right & Natty Lite.  A student of the ‘you can't fail if you don't try' philosophy, there's no better way to describe Tom than a 'Jack of all trades, master of none'.

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