June 24, 2017

Friday Degenerate Board – 12/30/16

Well, we put out $300 in futures last week, so we’re down $165 on the past week. Hopefully one of those three teams wins the NHL Eastern Conference and we can flip that result. Last week was the first week we really couldn’t find the right underdogs to ride, but luckily the parlay came through. Either way you slice it, we’re down to JUST $1,937.13 in profit so far – a 38.7% ROI. Damn, time to bounce back. To the recap!

The Recap & Running Damage Total

  • College Football Picks (0-0) 65.4% [+$1,385]
  • College Basketball Picks (0-0) 75.0% [+$190]
  • NBA Picks (3-1) 56.3% [+$220]
  • NHL Picks (0-0) 100.0% [+$100]
  • NFL Picks (4-10) 40.3% [+$742.13]
    • 11-11 including parlayed/teased bets 63.3%
    • 0-1 on completed Futures bets so far
  • Against the Spread (5-5) 56.7% [+$550]
  • Straight Up (1-4) 53.3% [+$1,390]
  • On the Tease (0-1) 33.3% [-$70]
  • On Parlays (1-1) 25.0% [+$867.13]
  • On Futures (0-0) 0.0% [-$100]

This week would have been really ugly if we didn’t nail that parlay. There’s really nobody to blame but myself. Each year, the NFL has week where the craptastic teams win and I just picked the wrong week to bet against the Browns and Jags.

In addition the three bets made in the parlay didn’t show up anywhere else, which is an uncommon strategy for me. I didn’t play the Falcons, Cardinals or Ravens individually, and I really should have. That’s just smart betting strategy.

The Best Win

Miami subsequently blew the game and found a way to win about four different times on Sunday. I can’t go into all the details, but finding a way to get it to OT and eventually win won us about $300.

The Worst Beat

Any time you lose by the hook, you’re pissed. Especially when it involves the best team in the NBA. Warriors by 6.5 felt like such a slam dunk, yet they go out and beat the Pistons by 6. Sometimes Vegas just has your number.

This Week’s Board

Original Bankroll: $5,000.00
Current Bankroll: $6,937.13 ($700 outstanding on futures bets)

The Arbitrary Rules: 10 picks ATS or O/U (Against the Spread or Over/Under), 5 picks SU (straight up), 1 teaser, 1 3-way parlay, 1 5-way parlay, 1 random ass futures bet

The Source: Vegas Insiders (games 12/30/16 to 1/2/17)

The Picks:

  • Against the Spread
    1. CFB: Florida State (+7) vs. Michigan ($110 to win $100)
      • Maybe it’s just me, but seven points feels like a lot here, especially in south Florida.
    2. CFB: Louisville (+3) vs. LSU ($110 to win $100)
      • Heisman winning underdog vs the Tigers without their best player?
    3. CFB: Oklahoma (-3) vs. Auburn ($110 to win $100)
      • Oklahoma is playing really good ball right now and I think they’re out to make a statement against an SEC foe.
    4. CFB: USC (-7) vs. Penn State ($110 to win $100)
      • USC is back in the Rose Bowl, which may be the most exciting football event in LA this fall.
    5. CFB: Western Michigan (+8) vs. Wisconsin($110 to win $100)
      • I love me an underdog in this spot, especially an undefeated team getting more than a tuddy.
    6. NFL: Cardinals (-6.5) at Rams ($110 to win $100)
      • The Rams are bad and they should feel bad.
    7. NFL: Chiefs (-5.5) at Chargers($110 to win $100)
      • Here’s to hoping the Chargers packed it in after getting Browns’ed last week.
    8. NFL: Patriots at Dolphins (+9.5) ($110 to win $100)
      • This game really doesn’t matter, but I do think the Dolphins have an interest in winning and going to Houston instead of Pittsburgh.
    9. NFL: Jaguars at Colts (-4.5) ($110 to win $100)
      • I just think this line is too low after last week’s results. Still not sold on the Jaguars after one win.
    10. NFL: Raiders at Broncos (-1.5) ($110 to win $100)
      • You’ll notice I’m going heavy on this game. I don’t think McGloin in Denver against a pissed off Broncos team is ideal in a ‘meh’ game for the Raiders.
  • Straight Up
    1. CFB: Florida State (+230) vs. Michigan ($100 to win $230)
      • It’s a long shot, but I’d take 2 to 1 odds in FSU’s favor against almost anyone.
    2. CFB: Louisville (+140) vs. LSU ($100 to win $140)
      • Which team has more to play for here?
    3. CFB: Western Michigan (+270) vs. Wisconsin ($100 to win $270)
      • These games are typically crap shoots, so why not take the dog?
    4. NFL: Packers at Lions (+160) ($100 to win $160)
      • I don’t really see this happening, but a home dog with a playoff berth and division title on the line?
    5. NFL: Texans (+150) at Titans ($100 to win $150)
      • I know the Texans may rest people, but the Titans without Mariota are a huge question mark.
  • 6-point; 3-Team Teaser ($100 to win $170)
    1. NFL: Saints at Falcons (-1), Raiders at Broncos (+4.5)Cardinals (-0.5) at Rams
      • Teaser rules: All 3 teams must cover spreads 6 points in their favor. For example the Falcons were originally 7-point favorites and we’ve teased the line down to 1-point favorites.
  • 3-Way Parlay ($100 to win $600)
    1. NFL: Bears (+6.5) at Vikings, Cowboys (+3.5) at Eagles, Raiders at Broncos (-1.5)
      • This was a really hard week to parlay. I know the Cowboys are likely to rest people, but the Eagles are bad.
  • 5-Way Parlay ($100 to win $574.06)
    1. NFL: Cardinals (-260) at Rams, Raiders at Broncos (-125), Saints at Falcons (-320)Chiefs (-240) at Chargers, Panthers at Buccaneers (-220)
      • Again, a really hard week to parlay. Trying to find five winners without stupid odds was really hard.
  • Random Futures
    1. NFL: Falcons to reach the Super Bowl (+400)
      • I’m not so sure the Falcons aren’t the best team in the NFC. Much more favorable odds than the Cowboys and Seahawks.

The Damage: 19 bets, $2,000 on the table, $5,689.06 in potential winnings.

The Disclaimer: Don’t actually play these bets. I’m a degenerate and I’m sure this column will be bankrupt in a few short weeks. Do not construe any of this as actual gambling advice. Your bets and your results are your responsibility, and neither I, nor TGS, bear any responsibility for your personal actions.

Tom Danielson 64 Articles
Managing Editor

Every family needs an adult figure. That's Tom's job on this ship. After graduating from Iowa State University, Tom headed down the ‘failed professional golfer' career path before heading back to his calling as an engineer in the great white north (Minnesota). He got his start in blogging, and continues to contribute at the critically acclaimed site, Wide Right & Natty Lite.  A student of the ‘you can't fail if you don't try' philosophy, there's no better way to describe Tom than a 'Jack of all trades, master of none'.

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