July 23, 2017

Friday Degenerate Board – 12/9/16

Lesson learned, don’t bet against the Lions. I bet against them to win the NFC North, and bet a bit on the Saints to win straight up last week. The Eagles are the exact opposite – the Eagles are bad. It should have been expected in Carson Wentz’s rookie season, but their hot start and quality defense instilled some betting confidence that was apparently unwarranted.

The Recap

  • College Football Picks (5-3) (14-8 on the season)
  • College Basketball Picks (1-0) (2-1 on the season)
  • NBA Picks (0-1) (1-3 on the season)
  • NHL Picks (0-0) (1-0 on the season)
  • NFL Picks (3-2) (8-13 on the season)
    • 10-6 including parlayed/teased bets (29-19 on the season)
  • 6-4 Against the Spread (16-14 on the season)
  • 3-2 Straight Up (9-6 on the season)
  • 0-1 on the Tease (1-2 on the season)
  • 0-2 on parlays (0-6 on the season)
  • Undetermined on futures (still no determined futures bets yet, go Vikings, Steelers and Buckeyes!)

I’m considering last week a wash. There’s still potential with the Steelers futures pick, and we were really close on our tease and 3-team parlay, but overall it was a pretty tame week. We continue to make money betting underdogs to win straight up, and we should really consider getting rid of at least one of the two parlays as we’re doing fine ATS and SU, yet haven’t hit on a tease since the first week, and are 0-6 on parlays in the last 3 weeks. All in all though, a $20 loss is fine. Gambling is more entertaining than most movies and if you only lose $20, it’s actually cheaper.

Keep in mind we still have $300 in futures out there  with potential to win more than $2k. So really, we’re $220 positive at this exact moment in time. Not bad for a bunch of degenerates.

The Best Win

I’m calling this a tie. The trio of picking Penn State, Temple and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers straight up was key to minimizing losses this week. Winning SU picks is hard. You either have to hit on about 40% of your underdog picks to win outright to make money, or bet heavily on favorites that actually pull through. It’s always hard to throw money on an underdog, but oftentimes, if the line is between a pick and three points in a football game, you’re almost better off taking the underdog to win outright if you think they can. Hitting 60% on underdogs is what carried us this week.

The Worst Beat

WTF Dolphins? This wasn’t even a bad beat as the game wasn’t even close. How do you win six games in a row and then go get pounded in Baltimore against a team you’re battling for the playoffs. Just a huge whiff on that pick. On the other hand, I was happy to see it after abandoning my Dolphins fandom.

This Week’s Board

Original Bankroll: $5,000
Current Bankroll: $4,920 ($300 outstanding on futures bets)

The Arbitrary Rules: 10 picks ATS or O/U (Against the Spread or Over/Under), 5 picks SU (straight up), 1 teaser, 1 3-way parlay, 1 5-way parlay, 1 random ass futures bet

The Source: Vegas Insiders (games 12/9/16 to 12/11/16)

The Picks:

  • Against the Spread
    1. CFB: Army vs. Navy (Under 47) ($110 to win $100)
      • Cold weather, two option offenses, Navy down a QB or two. I don’t really have a feel on this, but it just feels like a running clock, slug it out type of game.
    2. CBB: Georgia Southern at Minnesota (-12.5) ($110 to win $100)
      • Just a gut pick since a lot of the other college basketball lines aren’t out yet. No way in hell I would actually bet Georgia Southern at Minnesota, like ever.
    3. NBA: Rockets at Thunder (Over 224) ($110 to win $100)
      • Ah yes, my favorite two lethal scorers in the NBA that don’t play a lick of defense. Russell Westbrook and James Harden. Let’s get to scoring boys.
    4. NBA: Magic at Hornets (-7) ($110 to win $100)
      • I mean in one of my few bad NBA picks I bet against the Magic before and lost. What could go wrong doing it again?
    5. NBA: Heat at Cavaliers (-13) ($110 to win $100)
      • Cleveland has Lebron, Miami does not.
    6. NBA: Pistons (-2.5) at Timberwolves ($110 to win $100)
      • Call this a head over heart pick. I’m a Wolves fan, but they’ve lost some very winnable games this year. I see the Pistons winning and if I only have to lay 2.5? Sure.
    7. NFL: Texans at Colts (-6.5) ($110 to win $100)
      • The Texans have only covered once on the road this season (Jacksonville) and the Colts just can’t lose this division, right?
    8. NFL: Redskins (-2) at Eagles ($110 to win $100)
      • I don’t really love this pick, but I have to bet against the Eagles after letting them whip me the last couple weeks.
    9. Cardinals at Dolphins (+2) ($110 to win $100)
      • The Cardinals got a good win last week over the Redskins, but now they have to go back across the country against an angry Miami team. Even though they have some injuries, I think the Dolphins can win this.
    10. Minnesota (-3) at Jaguars ($110 to win $100)
      • Adrian Peterson isn’t returning unless the Vikings are in the hunt. 1st step is winning this game. I’m expecting the Vikings defense to cover the spread itself. If the Vikings offense simply scores, it could get ugly.
  • Straight Up
    1. CFB: Army (+280) vs Navy ($100 to win $280)
      • Betting against Navy worked well for me last week. Army has had a week off while Navy got beat by Temple last week. This game is usually emotional and close, If i’m getting +280 – give me the underdog all day.
    2. NFL: Seahawks at Packers (+140) ($100 to win $140)
      • Earl Thomas’ season is over (sad) and I get odds with Aaron Rodgers at home? The Seahawks haven’t been great on the road, and I think this wreaks of a Packers win.
    3. NFL: Cowboys at Giants (+170) ($100 to win $170)
      • Man, the Cowboys run has to come to an end eventually, right? How about at the hands of the team that already beat them in Dallas, on the road, in primetime, with Eli and OBJ doing Eli and OBJ things?
    4. NFL: Saints (+125) at Buccaneers ($100 to win $125)
      • TOM, WHAT ARE YOU DOING? DID YOU NOT LEARN YOUR LESSON ON THE SAINTS LAST WEEK? No, not really.
    5. NFL: Jets (+135) at  49ers ($100 to win $135)
      • There is absolutely no way I would watch or care about this game unless I put money on it. So here we are.
  • 6-Point, 3-Team Teaser
    1. NFL: Ravens at Patriots (PK), Bears at Lions (-1), Falcons (PK) at Rams ($100 to win $170)
      • Teaser rules: All 3 teams must cover spreads 6 points in their favor. For example The Patriots were originally 6-point favorites and we’ve teased the line down to winning straight up.
  • 3-Way Parlay
    1. NFL: Bengals (-5.5) at Browns, Redskins (-2) at Eagles, Falcons (-6) at Rams
      • How stupid do you have to be to take three road favorites to cover in a parlay? I already regret this.
  • 5-Way Parlay
    1. NFL: Ravens at Patriots (-300), Cowboys (-200) at Giants, Vikings (-170) at Jaguars, Bears at Lions (-350), Bengals (-230) at Browns
      • Just win, baby.
  • Random Futures
    1. NFL: Chiefs (10:1) to reach AFC Championship Game
      • I got in on this before the Chiefs beat the Raiders last night. It’s a minor hedge on my Steelers’ Super Bowl Future, but I think they could honestly meet there if someone beats the Patriots. Not unfathomable with Gronk done for the year.

The Damage: 19 bets, $2,000 on the table, $6,145 in potential winnings.

The Disclaimer: Don’t actually play these bets. I’m a degenerate and I’m sure this column will be bankrupt in a few short weeks. Do not construe any of this as actual gambling advice. Your bets and your results are your responsibility, and neither I, nor TGS, bear any responsibility for your personal actions.

Tom Danielson 65 Articles
Managing Editor

Every family needs an adult figure. That's Tom's job on this ship. After graduating from Iowa State University, Tom headed down the ‘failed professional golfer' career path before heading back to his calling as an engineer in the great white north (Minnesota). He got his start in blogging, and continues to contribute at the critically acclaimed site, Wide Right & Natty Lite.  A student of the ‘you can't fail if you don't try' philosophy, there's no better way to describe Tom than a 'Jack of all trades, master of none'.

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