November 25, 2017

Friday Degenerate Board – 12/16/16

Ok, now we’ve almost certainly learned our lesson about betting on the Saints, right? RIGHT? In all seriousness, there isn’t much to be upset about this week. It was by far our best week and we raked an $1,800 profit with another $1,000 left on the board to win (go Chiefs). We got lucky in some spots, but for the most part everything was reasonably picked and the results showed that.

To the recap!

The Recap

  • College Football Picks (2-0) (16-8 on the season)
  • College Basketball Picks (1-0) (3-1 on the season)
  • NBA Picks (3-1) (4-4 on the season)
  • NHL Picks (0-0) (1-0 on the season)
  • NFL Picks (6-2) (14-15 on the season)
    • 16-3 including parlayed/teased bets (45-22 on the season)
  • 8-2 Against the Spread (24-16 on the season)
  • 4-1 Straight Up (13-7 on the season)
  • 1-0 on the Tease (2-2 on the season)
  • 1-1 on Parlays (1-7 on the season)
  • Undetermined on futures (still no determined futures bets yet, go Vikings, Steelers, Chiefs and Buckeyes!)

Those numbers are remarkable. If we continue this torrid pace, I will actually quit my job because there’s more money to be made here. While the tease and parlays look bad, the reality is that if we’re .500 on teases and ~.200 on parlays will make money because of the payouts. If the damn Cowboys had won, we’d have won our other parlay and raised this week’s profit to $2,130. It was a remarkable week, truly.

The Best Win

There’s a lot to pick from here, like the Redskins strip sack to save the cover on the Eagles final drive, the Dolphins salvaging a win with a backup QB after Tannehill went down, and whatever happened to help the Jets come back from 14 points down on the road. However, I would argue the best play we made was the Army-Navy game.

If you recall, we bet Army to win outright and the under. Navy was playing with a 3rd string QB and you had two triple option teams running all over the field. Everyone was fixated on Navy winning 14 in a row, but nobody was talking about how Army quietly had a decent team this year. In a turnover filled battle, we managed to turn $210 into $590. Not a bad ROI in my opinion.

The Worst Beat

We’re really splitting hairs here considering we only lost four decisions this week. Let’s go with whatever the hell happened in Indianapolis. The Colts were coming off an absolute drubbing of the Jets and managed to lose outright to Brock Osweiler at home? What the hell? I say we just avoid the AFC South at all costs going forward, unless of course, we’re betting against them.

This Week’s Board

Original Bankroll: $5,000
Current Bankroll: $6,720 ($400 outstanding on futures bets)

The Arbitrary Rules: 10 picks ATS or O/U (Against the Spread or Over/Under), 5 picks SU (straight up), 1 teaser, 1 3-way parlay, 1 5-way parlay, 1 random ass futures bet

The Source: Vegas Insiders (games 12/16/16 to 12/19/16)

The Picks:

  • Against the Spread
    1. CFB: Houston (-4) vs. San Diego State ($110 to win $100)
      • Bowl games are always a crapshoot because you don’t know who’s motivated, etc. I just think Houston wants to prove they’re more than Tom Herman. I like the Cougars big in this spot.
    2. CFB: Arkansas State (+6.5) vs. UCF ($110 to win $100)
      • I know this is a home game for UCF, but whatever. Call it a heart pick because I think Arkansas State is better.
    3. NBA: Hornets at Celtics (+2) ($110 to win $100)
      • The Hornets are 0-3 SU on this current road trip, and now they head to Boston. Why on earth are they getting points? Give me the home team.
    4. NBA: Lakers at 76ers (-1.5) ($110 to win $100)
      • Why do I do this to myself. Betting on the Sixers is financial suicide. The Sixers have covered 4 of the last 6 and the Lakers haven’t covered in 8 straight games. Sounds like a fun game to watch, huh?
    5. NFL: Titans at Chiefs (Under 42) ($110 to win $100)
      • I’ve been to Arrowhead when it’s been -20 windchill, and this week could be the coldest game there since. I could see KC winning with 21 points, but I think they hold the Titans to less than that.
    6. NFL: Lions (+4) at Giants ($110 to win $100)
      • The Lions are tied for the 2nd best record in the NFC with the Seahawks and…the Giants. I’ve been waiting to try and predict the fall of the Giants, and I think it starts this week. Bad Eli.
    7. NFL: Dolphins (-2.5) at Jets ($110 to win $100)
      • Well the Dolphins are starting backup QB Matt Moore, on the road, in December, in New York against a Jets team that won in San Francisco last week. What could go wrong? Look, the 49ers are BAD, and many Dolphin fans think Moore is better than Tannehill. Those fans are wrong, but I don’t think he has to be anyway.
    8. NFL: Buccaneers (+7) at Cowboys ($110 to win $100)
      • The Bucs have won five in a row and have been playing great defense. We saw the Cowboys rookie phenoms struggle a bit last week. While I do think Dallas wins this, I don’t think they cover the number.
    9. NFL: Saints at Cardinals (-2.5) ($110 to win $100)
      • Screw you, Saints. You haven’t performed for me the last two weeks. So now I’ll bet against you and fully expect you to blow up my board.
    10. NFL: Jaguars at Texans (-6) ($110 to win $100)
      • If you can go win at Indy, you should be able to beat the Jags at home by at least a touchdown. God I hate betting on Brock Osweiler.
  • Straight Up
    1. NBA: Nets (+210) at Magic ($100 to win $210)
      • Ready for a fun stat? The Magic haven’t covered the spread at home ALL YEAR! They’re also 4-9 at home. I know the Nets are only 1-10 on the road, but give me the miracle here.
    2. NBA: Bucks (+170) at Bulls ($100 to win $170)
      • The Bucks won by 11 yesterday in Milwaukee. So it’s possible?
    3. NFL: Panthers (+230) at Redskins ($100 to win $230)
      • Carolina is probably the least predictable team to bet in the NFL right now. So why not pick them to give the Redskins the most Redskins loss ever?
    4. NFL: Lions (+170) at Giants ($100 to win $170)
      • Both teams are 9-4 and I’m just not sold on the Giants. Plus, I’m continuing to hedge my futures bet of the Vikings to win the division. I will either jinx it into happening (still possible) or win enough money on the Lions to cover my loss there.
    5. NFL: Buccaneers (+250) at Cowboys ($100 to win $250)
      • The Bucs have won five in a row and you’re giving me 3.5:1 odds that they go in and beat a team with a rookie QB and RB that put up a whopping 7 points last week? The Bucs have a better defense than the Giants and I think the Cowboys win this game, but if the rookies don’t figure it out, I want to be the beneficiary of that.
  • 6-point; 3-Team Teaser ($100 to win $170)
    1. NFL: Patriots (+3) at Broncos, Browns at Bills (-4), Titans at Chiefs (+0.5)
      • Teaser rules: All 3 teams must cover spreads 6 points in their favor. For example the Patriots were originally 3-point favorites and we’ve teased the line down to 3-point underdogs.
  • 3-Way Parlay ($100 to win $600)
    1. NFL: Packers (-5.5) at Bears, Steelers (-3) at Bengals, Patriots (-3) at Broncos
      • We picked three road favorites to cover in our parlay last week and it worked. So I’m going back to the well. Late in the year, you’re better off picking the better teams that have something to play for. The Bears and Bengals are done and I only have to lay a field goal with Brady vs. Siemien? Sure.
  • 5-Way Parlay ($100 to win $550)
    1. NFL: Patriots (-165) at Broncos, Steelers (-170) at Bengals, Buccaneers at Cowboys (-300), Eagles at Ravens (-240), Packers (-260) at Bears
      • Pick the best teams with something to play for. It’s the KISS theory of gambling. Keep it simple, stupid.
  • Random Futures
    1. Duke (7:2) to win NCAA Tournament ($100 to win $350)
      • Duke started at (9:2) and I only imagine they’ll become a stronger favorite going forward. While I will likely hedge this with some other teams later, I wanted to get some money down on the favorite as early as possible to get the odds before they fall through the floor.

The Damage: 19 bets, $2,000 on the table, $5,700 in potential winnings.

The Disclaimer: Don’t actually play these bets. I’m a degenerate and I’m sure this column will be bankrupt in a few short weeks. Do not construe any of this as actual gambling advice. Your bets and your results are your responsibility, and neither I, nor TGS, bear any responsibility for your personal actions.

Tom Danielson 67 Articles

Managing Editor

Every family needs an adult figure. That’s Tom’s job on this ship. After graduating from Iowa State University, Tom headed down the ‘failed professional golfer’ career path before heading back to his calling as an engineer in the great white north (Minnesota). He got his start in blogging, and continues to contribute at the critically acclaimed site, Wide Right & Natty Lite.  A student of the ‘you can’t fail if you don’t try’ philosophy, there’s no better way to describe Tom than a ‘Jack of all trades, master of none’.

Be the first to comment

Leave a Reply

%d bloggers like this: