November 25, 2017

Friday Degenerate Board – 12/23/16

We’re getting to the scary point in the season where I’m almost convincing myself to actually put money on my bets. We hauled in another $317.13 last week bringing our five week profits to $2,102.13. That’s a cool 42% ROI since we began this venture together. We were incredibly close to raking in another $1k too, if a couple of teams hadn’t shat the bed. To the recap!

The Recap

  • College Football Picks (1-1) (17-9 on the season)
  • College Basketball Picks (0-0) (3-1 on the season)
  • NBA Picks (2-2) (6-6 on the season)
  • NHL Picks (0-0) (1-0 on the season)
  • NFL Picks (5-7) (19-22 on the season)
    • 13-7 including parlayed/teased bets (58-29 on the season)
  • 5-5 Against the Spread (29-21 on the season)
  • 2-3 Straight Up (15-10 on the season)
  • 0-1 on the Tease (2-3 on the season)
  • 1-1 on Parlays (2-8 on the season)
  • 0-1 on Futures (the Vikings blew it)
    • Still waiting on Steelers Super Bowl champs, Chiefs to AFC Title game, Buckeyes to win CFP, and Duke to win NCAA Tournament.

We had the Chiefs +0.5 on a tease, so all they had to do was win, which they found a way to not do in the last three minutes and we had the Packers -5.5 in a parlay. The Packers blew a 17-point lead and had Jordy Nelson fall down on a 60-yard pass completion to set up a game winning field goal. If they don’t blow the lead, Jordy runs that pass in, or the Packers score a TD in OT, we’re $700 richer – but alas, the frisky Bears blew our parlay.

The Best Win

I could go a couple different directions here, but I’m going to focus on the Ravens/Eagles game. We didn’t bet on that game specifically, but rather had the Ravens in our 5-team parlay. For those who didn’t watch, the Eagles scored a touchdown in the waning moments and had an extra point for the tie to send the game to overtime. Wouldn’t you know it, they went for two and failed. That one point win was just what we needed to cash in nearly $700 in our parlay.

The Worst Beat

WTF Kansas City? The Chiefs were up seven with under four minutes left. All they had to do was win. They allow the Titans to drive down for a game tying score – or so we thought. You see if the Titans kick the XP, the odds are favorable that KC drives and kicks a game winning field goal, but they didn’t. The Titans went for two and the win on the road – and they failed! Hooray, right?

Not so fast.

The Chiefs promptly go three and out and punt the ball to the Titans with under two minutes and no timeouts. The Titans drive and have a kick to win from 53-yards as time expires. AND THEY MISSED IT!! Unfortunately for us, Andy Reid iced the kicker and gave the Titans a second shot, which they made and won the game. Horrible, just horrible.

This Week’s Board

Original Bankroll: $5,000.00
Current Bankroll: $7,102.13 ($400 outstanding on futures bets)

The Arbitrary Rules: 10 picks ATS or O/U (Against the Spread or Over/Under), 5 picks SU (straight up), 1 teaser, 1 3-way parlay, 1 5-way parlay, 1 random ass futures bet

The Source: Vegas Insiders (games 12/23/16 to 12/26/16)

The Picks:

  • Against the Spread
    1. NBA: Bulls at Hornets (-3.5) ($110 to win $100)
      • We’ve been having good luck betting against the Bulls lately, and if the Hornets are better (they are), then 3.5 points shouldn’t be an issue.
    2. NBA: Warriors (-6.5) at Pistons ($110 to win $100)
      • This is a heart over knowledge pick, and the Warriors have won their last three games by a total of 91 points.
    3. NBA: Wizards at Bucks (-3) ($110 to win $100)
      • The better team is playing at home, and while the Wizards have been better of late, I don’t think they get this one.
    4. NBA: Spurs (-3) at Trail Blazers ($110 to win $100)
      • The Blazers have lost four in a row and the Spurs are good. Sooooo.
    5. NFL: Dolphins (+4) at Bills ($110 to win $100)
      • I’m betting Matt Moore on the road in December, and I’m dumb. Honestly, the Dolphins need this game, and Jay Ajayi ran for 200+ on the Bills last time. It’s not supposed to be a typical December day in Buffalo and I wouldn’t be surprised if the ‘Fins win this one.
    6. NFL: Broncos (+3.5) at Chiefs ($100 to win $100)
      • Find you a sportsbook that has this at 3.5 (EV). Some books are getting bought down to an even -3 with heavy money coming on the Broncos. You’ll want that hook. If the Titans can win in KC, so can the Broncos, but also, the Chiefs rarely lose two in a row. Who knows?
    7. NFL: Vikings (+6.5) at Packers ($110 to win $100)
      • I think this line is about two points too high. The Bears hung with the Packers last week, and the Vikings got destroyed by the Colts. I can’t see the Vikings shitting the bed two weeks in a row as they cling to faint playoff hopes.
    8. NFL: Colts at Raiders (-3.5) ($110 to win $100)
      • I’m not as sure on this one, the Raiders often play closer games than they should, but even though the Colts rolled in Minnesota last week, it’s still the same team that lost at home to Brock Osweiler.
    9. NFL: Titans (-5) at Jaguars ($110 to win $100)
      • Lord only knows what we’re getting from the Jags after firing Gus Bradley, but I’m willing to bet against them.
    10. NFL: Chargers (-5.5) at Browns ($110 to win $100)
      • The Browns are 2-12 against the spread this season. 2-12 and haven’t covered since week six. Money is actually coming in on the Browns at this line. What on earth?
  • Straight Up
    1. NFL: Dolphins (+175) at Bills ($100 to win $175)
      • I love betting underdogs and one of these teams is currently in the playoffs and one isn’t.
    2. NFL: Redskins at Bears (+155) ($100 to win $155)
      • If the Redskins can lose at home to the Panthers, they can lose on the road to the frisky Bears, right?
    3. NFL: Buccaneers (+150) at Saints ($100 to win $150)
      • I hate betting against Drew Brees in the Superdome, but the Lions went in there and handled business. Are we sure the Lions are that much better than the Buccaneers?
    4. NFL: Broncos (+155) at Chiefs ($100 to win $155)
      • I still don’t necessarily believe in this pick, but the Titans did it.
    5. NFL: Lions (+280) at Cowboys ($100 to win $280)
      • The Lions have absolutely been killing me lately. They can’t lose every bet I have on them, right? Not only that, but the Cowboys wrapped up the one seed in the NFC last night, so what’s left for them to play for?
  • 6-point; 3-Team Teaser ($100 to win $170)
    1. NFL: Vikings at Packers (-0.5)Chargers (+0.5) at Browns, Bengals at Texans (+6)
      • Teaser rules: All 3 teams must cover spreads 6 points in their favor. For example the Packers were originally 6.5-point favorites and we’ve teased the line down to 0.5-point favorites.
  • 3-Way Parlay ($100 to win $600)
    1. NFL: Falcons (-3) at Panthers, Cardinals (+8.5) at Seahawks, Ravens (+5.5) at Steelers
      • We’re actually having pretty good luck betting on road teams in these parlays. I think the Panthers are getting an unnecessary bump after last week’s performance, and I think the other two spreads are just too high.
  • 5-Way Parlay ($100 to win $561.73)
    1. NFL: Falcons (-170) at Panthers, Titans (-220) at Jaguars, Chargers (-240) at Browns, Colts at Raiders (-185), Vikings at Packers (-320)
      • I’m going to repeat my quote from last week, because the strategy worked. “Pick the best teams with something to play for. It’s the KISS theory of gambling. Keep it simple, stupid.”
  • Random Futures
    1. NHL: Montreal Canadiens to win the Eastern Conference ($100 to win $500)
      • Currently lead the Atlantic Division with a goal differential of +29 and 46 points.
    2. NHL: New York Rangers to win the Eastern Conference ($100 to win $450)
      • Currently T-2 in the Metropolitan with 47 points and a goal differential of +33.
    3. NHL: Columbus Blue Jackets to win the Eastern Conference ($100 to win $750)
      • Currently lead the Metropolitan Division with 48 points, a goal differential of +44 and an 11 game winning streak.

I know I say only do one futures bet, but do the math. This bet covers three of the best four teams in the east. We’re $300 invested and the least we can win is $450. That’s a win. Just have to hope another contender (a la Pittsburgh Penguins) doesn’t sneak in and take the 1-seed.

The Damage: 19 bets, $2,190 on the table, $5,981.73 in potential winnings.

The Disclaimer: Don’t actually play these bets. I’m a degenerate and I’m sure this column will be bankrupt in a few short weeks. Do not construe any of this as actual gambling advice. Your bets and your results are your responsibility, and neither I, nor TGS, bear any responsibility for your personal actions.

Tom Danielson 67 Articles

Managing Editor

Every family needs an adult figure. That’s Tom’s job on this ship. After graduating from Iowa State University, Tom headed down the ‘failed professional golfer’ career path before heading back to his calling as an engineer in the great white north (Minnesota). He got his start in blogging, and continues to contribute at the critically acclaimed site, Wide Right & Natty Lite.  A student of the ‘you can’t fail if you don’t try’ philosophy, there’s no better way to describe Tom than a ‘Jack of all trades, master of none’.

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