May 28, 2017

Friday Degenerate Board – 12/2/16

I apologize to my friends in the Pacific Northwest, but I’m here to tell you all that betting on the Seahawks as heavily as I did, may have been the worst decision I’ve ever made. I joked on Twitter that they cost me a mortgage payment, but alas, I rent. Gamblers don’t have nice things like cars or houses, we rent apartments and get bus passes. As I’ve said before – never gamble. 

However, what good would this column be if we just quit when the going got rough? Sure we lost $390 last week, but we’re only down $60 for the season which is less than the house’s juice. So we’re not doing too bad – let’s get back on the horse.

The Recap

  • College Football Picks (4-4) (9-5 on the season)
  • NFL Picks (3-7) (5-11 on the season)
    • 10-8 including parlayed/teased bets (19-13 on the season)
  • 4-6 Against the Spread (10-10 on the season)
  • 3-2 Straight Up (6-4 on the season)
  • 0-1 on the Tease (1-1 on the season)
  • 0-2 on parlays (0-4 on the season)
  • Undetermined on futures (still no determined futures bets yet, go Vikings and Buckeyes!)

We’re currently being saved by betting on underdogs winning outright. Nice little trend there. Also, been a gnat’s ass away from hitting on two major parlays, if we hit one in the next few week’s we’ll make all of our money back and then some. Let’s get it.

We fell victim to the style points policy of the college football playoff. We had Penn State/Michigan State under 54. With 4:20 remaining, Michigan State punts, down 38-12. Basically giving up. You would expect Penn State (and most B1G teams) to run the football, and effectively the clock, and end the game. Well they didn’t. Penn State passed on each of the next four plays en route to a garbage time touchdown that pushed this to over at 57. Thanks guys, hope you lose to Wisconsin and get shut out of the CFP.

The Best Win

WE DOINKED ONE! Picking the Chiefs to win outright was risky enough. It got even riskier once I saw the injury report. Trailing by eight, Alex Smith led the Chiefs on one last heroic drive and capitalized with a touchdown and two-point conversion with 12 seconds remaining in regulation. After both teams kicked field goals on the first possession of overtime, the teams traded punts until this happened as time expired giving the Chiefs the win.

The Worst Beat

The Seattle freaking Seahawks, man. All they had to do was go and beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Not even cover the 5.5 point spread. We had teased them to 0.5 point underdogs and had them winning outright in a 5-team parlay. Each of the other seven results in those two bets went our way. Had the Seahawks simply won (they were 5.5 point favorites after all), we would have pulled in $920 on those two bets. $920 bucks! That one result would have resulted in a $530 profit this week! Alas, we lost $390 – thanks a lot Seattle. Not only that, they threw up a fiver, losing 14-5.

This Week’s Board

Original Bankroll: $5,000
Current Bankroll: $4,940

The Arbitrary Rules: 10 picks ATS or O/U (Against the Spread or Over/Under), 5 picks SU (straight up), 1 teaser, 1 3-way parlay, 1 5-way parlay, 1 random ass futures bet

The Source: Vegas Insiders (games 12/2/16 to 12/5/16)

The Picks:

  • Against the Spread
    1. CFB: Kansas State (+4.5) at TCU ($110 to win $100)
      • I almost make it a policy to not bet against Bill Snyder when he’s getting more than a field goal against a mediocre team.
    2. CFB: Colorado (+7.5) vs. Washington ($110 to win $100)
      • Washington just really hasn’t been tested a lot. In their two games against good teams they lost to USC and won by seven at Utah. Colorado is better than Utah, and I get a hook? Thanks.
    3. CFB: Ohio (+19) vs. Western Michigan ($110 to win $100)
      • I don’t necessarily feel great about this one, but Frank Solich is a veteran coach, been in MAC title games, and I could see a 14-17 point win, but 19 feels like a lot in a conference championship.
    4. CFB: Clemson (-10) vs. Virginia Tech ($110 to win $100)
      • Clemson is just better and I think they have a statement game left in them.
    5. CFB: Penn State vs. Wisconsin (Under 27.5) ($110 to win $100)
      • Yes, Penn State burned me on the under last week, but Wisconsin is light years better than Michigan State. Doesn’t 21-17 or 24-20 feel about right for a punt filled B1G Championship Game?
    6. CFB: Oklahoma State at Oklahoma (-11) ($110 to win $100)
      • Only two teams have gone into Norman and been within 11 points this year. Ohio State and Texas? Lol. Oklahoma has been much better lately and I could very well see a 45-31 type game here.
    7. NFL: Buccaneers (+3.5) at Chargers ($110 to win $100)
      • Tampa Bay has won their last two games (@KC, vs. SEA) and I think both of those teams are better than the Chargers.
    8. NFL: Lions (+6) at Saints ($110 to win $100)
      • Call it a hedge of sorts, as you’ll see I’m heavily betting the Saints to win. However, the Lions have only lost by more than six ONCE. That was way back in week three at Green Bay. So yes, it’s a hedge, and yes I’m really hoping the Lions lose by a field goal.
    9. CBB: Alabama at Texas (-3.5) ($110 to win $100)
      • Yes, I know Texas has lost three in a row, but the Tide are not good. I think this is a ‘get right’ game for the Shaka Smart and the Longhorns.
    10. NBA: Magic at 76ers (-2) ($110 to win $100)
      • Lol, here we are betting on the Sixers. Here’s the thing though, the Magic aren’t good and they’re on the second night of a road back to back after playing in Memphis last night. Give me the home team on three days rest.
  • Straight Up
    1. CFB: Penn State (+120) vs. Wisconsin ($100 to win $120)
      • The spread is less than a field goal, so give me the “underdog”.
    2. CFB: Temple (+135) vs. Navy ($100 to win $135)
      • Probably not my smartest bet the way Navy has been playing, but Temple has covered the spread 11 straight games and given up just 23 points total in their last four.
    3. NFL: Buccaneers (+165) at Chargers ($100 to win $165)
      • Again, if you can beat teams like the Falcons, Chiefs, and Seahawks, why can’t you beat the Chargers?
    4. NFL: Dolphins (+150) at Ravens ($100 to win $150)
      • The Dolphins have won six straight and haven’t won in Baltimore since the 90’s. Something’s got to give. Miami is only getting a field goal, so I’ll take the better odds for the outright win. If the line jumps to 3.5, I’d probably switch this to just betting the spread.
    5. NFL: Redskins (+125) at Cardinals ($100 to win $125)
      • Are the Redskins better than the Cardinals? Yes, yes they are. Plus they get an extra few days to prepare after playing on Thanksgiving.
  • 6-Point, 3-Team Teaser
    1. NFL: Lions at Saints (0), Texans at Packers (-.5)Broncos (+1) at Jaguars ($100 to win $170)
      • Teaser rules: All 3 teams must cover spreads 6 points in their favor. For example The Saints were originally 6-point favorites and we’ve teased the line down to winning straight up.
  • 3-Way Parlay
    1. NFL: Broncos (-5) at Jaguars, Texans at Packers (-6.5)Eagles (-1) at Bengals ($100 to win $600)
  • 5-Way Parlay
    1. NFL: Texans at Packers (-270)Broncos (-235) at Jaguars, Giants at Steelers (-265), Chiefs at Falcons (-200), Lions at Saints (-260) ($100 to win $460)
  • Random Futures
    1. NFL: Pittsburgh Steelers (15/1) to win Super Bowl
      • I can’t believe I’m doing this because I often think the Steelers offense gets stroked so hard by the media that I tend to think the Steelers are actually overrated. But after Dallas and New England, who are your real Super Bowl contenders? Seattle at 13/2 or the Steelers at 15/1? Now that they’re getting healthy, I think they take the division from Baltimore. Then anything can happen.

The Damage: 19 bets, $2,000 on the table, $6,425 in potential winnings.

The Disclaimer: Don’t actually play these bets. I’m a degenerate and I’m sure this column will be bankrupt in a few short weeks. Do not construe any of this as actual gambling advice. Your bets and your results are your responsibility, and neither I, nor TGS, bear any responsibility for your personal actions.

Tom Danielson 64 Articles
Managing Editor

Every family needs an adult figure. That's Tom's job on this ship. After graduating from Iowa State University, Tom headed down the ‘failed professional golfer' career path before heading back to his calling as an engineer in the great white north (Minnesota). He got his start in blogging, and continues to contribute at the critically acclaimed site, Wide Right & Natty Lite.  A student of the ‘you can't fail if you don't try' philosophy, there's no better way to describe Tom than a 'Jack of all trades, master of none'.

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