May 24, 2017

Thanksgiving Degenerate Board 2016

This will be a Friday thing typically, but it’s Thanksgiving week, so gambling starts a few days early. If you played my bets (please don’t and never take gambling advice from this website) you’re up a few hundo. You’re welcome. If you didn’t play them, congratulations – you’re actually the smart one.

Thanksgiving is a time to get together with family, eat good food, honor our #blessedness, and watch football. If you can keep this winning train rolling, then making a little extra cash on your holiday will give you all the more reason to be thankful. If you drop a few hundred? Well, then you may have to be skipped when your turn comes to express your blessings at the dinner table.

Let’s try and keep the money train on the tracks, shall we? We won $330 last week, but not everything was swell. It very easily could have been six times that. Let’s reflect on last week’s bets.

The Recap

  • College Football Picks (5-1)
    • Ohio State winning the Championship is still out there
  • College Basketball Picks (1-1)
  • NBA Picks (1-2)
  • NFL Picks (2-4)
    • 9-5 including individual results of parlayed/teased bets
  • NHL Picks (1-0)

We went 6-4 against the spread, 3-2 straight up, 1-0 on the tease, 0-2 on parlays, and undetermined on my futures bet. 10-8 overall, which isn’t great, but some underdogs came through, and when you look closely, it was really close do a mountain of cash.

Blake fucking Bortles, man. The Jaguars were 6.5 point underdogs and had they have covered, we would have won a $600 parlay as the Dolphins and Bucs had done their jobs. The Jags actually had a 19-16 LEAD at the start of the 4th, but alas, Blake Bortles’ inability to score in non-garbage time situations cost me $600. Also, why would I ever bet on Blake Bortles in a 3-team parlay? Lesson learned.

The Eagles were driving late in the game at Seattle for the backdoor cover before a penalty on the final drive was too much to overcome. The Clippers had a 19 point lead at the beginning of the 4th quarter in Sacramento, but failed to cover the 7.5 point spread. Kansas won by 21 – we needed 22. The Nuggets missed a game winning free throw in regulation and lost in overtime when we had them at +140.

If you include the ‘Blake Bortles Botch’ (trademark pending), those results turned a $1,900 haul to a modest $330 win. Never gamble.

The Best Win

There’s definitely a few I could pick from here, but the best was San Diego State at Wyoming +330. I stay up to snuff by reading Tami’s weekly G5 updates here at The Tailgate Society, so I was aware that Wyoming could upset the Aztecs in a similar fashion to what happened against Boise State earlier this season. How it happened, though, was incredible.

The Cowboys scored a go ahead touchdown with 1:07 remaining and proceeded to pin the Aztecs at the 1 on the ensuing kick. I’m feeling pretty good with a 34-27 advantage, 99 yards to go, and a minute left. SDSU drives down and scores on a desperation heave that was tipped, with no time remaining. Initially the pass was ruled incomplete before being overturned. I’m still feeling good about my chances in overtime. SDSU decides to go for two.

I’m sweating.

I’m $330 richer.

The Worst Beat

I’ve already delineated a pretty lengthy list of candidates, but it’s got to be Jacksonville +6.5 in Detroit. Having a 3 point, 4th quarter lead and finding a way to lose by 7 is quite Jacksonville-y. It’s worse when that single result could have turned a $100 loss into a $600 win since the Dolphins and Bucs came through on the other two legs of the parlay.

This Week’s Board

But enough, I’m over it. We’re moving on to Thanksgiving week, which is one of the prime gambling weeks of the year. For the sake of consistency, we’re going to keep the arbitrary rules we set for ourselves the same this week. Also, I won – so I’m not going to change the rules on myself, that would be dumb.

Original Bankroll: $5,000
Current Bankroll: $5,330

The Arbitrary Rules: 10 picks ATS or O/U (Against the Spread or Over/Under), 5 picks SU (straight up), 1 teaser, 1 3-way parlay, 1 5-way parlay, 1 random ass futures bet

The Source: Vegas Insiders (games 11/24/16 to 11/27/16)

The Picks:

  • Against the Spread
    1. CFB: TCU at Texas (-2.5) ($110 to win $100)
      • TCU couldn’t stop Oklahoma State from running and now they go against one of the best backs in the country, on the road? The Longhorns should be rallying around their beleaguered coach, who is basically being hung out to try by the UT Athletic Department.
    2. CFB: Nebraska at Iowa (-3) ($110 to win $100)
      • This line opened at -1 and I wish I would have gotten in before it jumped all the way to a full field goal, but either way Nebraska is potentially missing its top two QB’s and I like the Hawks on senior day in Iowa City.
    3. CFB: Michigan State at Penn State (Under 54) ($110 to win $100)
      • Michigan State has only been involved in four games over 54 points this year, Penn State has been in quite a few, but to be honest, I don’t think Michigan State has the offense to make that happen. Especially in what could be crappy weather.
    4. CFB: North Carolina State (+11.5) at North Carolina ($110 to win $100)
      • NC State has lost by more than 11 twice this year (Louisville and Miami), and the Tarheels haven’t beaten a team as good as NC State  by more than 11 all year (sorry Georgia Tech). Plus – rivalry game, I’ll take the points.
    5. NFL: Rams at Saints (Under 47.5) ($110 to win $100)
      • The Rams defense is solid and I don’t trust their rookie QB to put up points on the road.
    6. NFL: Giants at Browns (+7) ($110 to win $100)
      • I know, I know, I know – it’s the Browns, BUT. The Giants haven’t won ANY of their seven games by more than seven points this year. The Browns have to know their time is running out, and I think the Giants are kind of smoke and mirrors anyway.
    7. NFL: Chargers (+1) at Texans ($110 to win $100)
      • The crappy part of this bet is that the one point buys you nothing, but I think the Chargers win this game, so I’ll take the one point loss push option I guess as the payout is the same to win straight up.
    8. NFL: Redskins at Cowboys (-7) ($110 to win $100)
      • The Redskins had to play the Sunday night game and now a Thursday afternoon game? Sheesh. Plus they have to go on the road to Dallas on Thanksgiving? I expect Dak Prescott to have a ‘rookie QB’ showing soon, just not this week.
    9. NFL: Panthers at Raiders (-3.5) ($110 to win $100)
      • Even if Luke Kuechly plays, I’m not sure how he could be 100%. Even if he were, I would expect this line to be closer to 6.5 points. So I’m expecting the Raiders to win by about a touchdown here.
    10. NFL: Vikings at Lions (-2.5) ($110 to win $100)
      • Considering the Lions covered this spread in Minnesota and this time they get the Vikings at home, I’ll stick with the Lions who have also won three in a row on Thanksgiving.
  • Straight Up
    1. NFL: Chiefs (+150) at Broncos ($100 to win $150)
      • The Chiefs had their annual weird as hell Andy Reid loss last week. I’m betting against Trevor Siemian.
    2. CFB: Texas Tech (+180) at Baylor ($100 to win $180)
      • This BUTT bowl is the gambling equivalent of “hold my beer and watch this shit”. Baylor has lost four in a row and Tech got pounded by 56 at Iowa State last week. Here’s to hoping Baylor has fully packed it in.
    3. CFB: UCLA at California (+140) ($100 to win $140)
      • Part of the problem picking straight up is to bet on favorites you have to put up more money than you can win. Thus, I tend to find underdogs I can see winning. Like the Bears. They can score and they’re at home, and hopefully that’s worth something.
    4. CFB: LSU at Texas A&M (+180) ($100 to win $180)
      • HOME DAWGS.
    5. CFB: South Alabama (+180) at Idaho ($100 to win $180)
      • Ok we’ve gone too far. There’s no way this is healthy. South Alabama won at Mississippi State and beat San Diego State. They also have a few inexplicable losses. I RIDE WITH USA.
  • 6-Point, 3-Team Teaser
    1. NFL: Steelers (-3) at Colts, Seahawks (+0.5) at Buccaneers, Patriots (-2) at Jets ($100 to win $170)
      • Teaser rules: All 3 teams must cover spreads 6 points in their favor. For example, Steelers were originally 9 point favorites and we’ve “teased” the line 6 points in our favor to 3 point favorites.
  • 3-Way Parlay
    1. NFL: Chargers (+1) at Texans, Seahawks (-5.5) at Buccaneers, Panthers at Raiders (-3.5) ($100 to win $600)
  • 5-Way Parlay
    1. NFL: Chargers (+100) at Texans, Cardinals at Falcons (-220), Seahawks (-250) at Buccaneers, Patriots (-400) at Jets, Rams at Saints (-335) ($100 to win $550)
  • Random Futures
    1. NFL: Vikings (+175) to win NFC North ($100 to win $175)
      • Consider this a hedge on my Lions bet this week. If the Vikings win this game, they’ll immediately jump to the favorite spot in this bet. If they lose, they can still win the division, but I won the Lions bet ATS. Win-win?

The Damage: 19 bets, $2,000 on the table, $5,325 in potential winnings.

The Disclaimer: Don’t actually play these bets. I’m a degenerate and I’m sure this column will be bankrupt in a few short weeks. Do not construe any of this as actual gambling advice. Your bets and your results are your responsibility, and neither I, nor TGS, bear any responsibility for your personal actions.

Tom Danielson 64 Articles
Managing Editor

Every family needs an adult figure. That's Tom's job on this ship. After graduating from Iowa State University, Tom headed down the ‘failed professional golfer' career path before heading back to his calling as an engineer in the great white north (Minnesota). He got his start in blogging, and continues to contribute at the critically acclaimed site, Wide Right & Natty Lite.  A student of the ‘you can't fail if you don't try' philosophy, there's no better way to describe Tom than a 'Jack of all trades, master of none'.

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